CMP: 5207.45
Could not initiate any Nifty trade today
Was waiting to see if Price would close > 5291 & then Nifty fell
But could not take advtg of sudden fall as 34EMA,30mins was broken in 5 mins & by the time HALF Hr finished @ 2:00pm price was already @ 5211 !!
1. Price resisted @ the UTL from 5629-5499 & closed << 20DSMA (close above it was the reason for my BULLISH view ysday)
2. EMA "hook" did not give a LONG & infact Price whip-sawed the 5DEMA -10DEMA to diverge into a Fast Fall set Up on EOD
(this is the issue wid the EMA formula, aim to resolve this, once I code the Adaptive MA in Excel)
3. 5206 zone again supported /arrested the fall on EOD, but will it hold for the 2nd time ??
4. My Failure with EW Lables continues yet again.... thank God this time safety net of SMO SAR is available :-)
SMO SAR VERDICT:
EOD - SMO SAR = 5245 (close of day) ,
Hrly - SMO SAR = 5220-5233 (Hr T/F, band given for 1st 2 hrs, will vary & should be dynamically updated on the Fly tomo)
1. Short Trade on Swing is on since 5DEMA direction has again changed sign to -ve
2. Lifo-Fibbo trade triggered Intra-day shorts today, but I could NOT CATCH it. Since price closed < 5DLEMA, market is now in a SELL ON RALLIES mode. Look to short as close to 5260 as possible until 5HrCEMA -10HrCEMA gives a BULL X-over
Follow the SAR Rules robotically ....
Did not initiate any trade today , but atleast did not lose anything. The EOD RULE saved me from going LONG Today (esp since my view was BULLISH @ ysday close) !!
cheers
Shri,
ReplyDeleteLot of people got whipsawed today..and notbody has the time.. itrade with a terminal from zerodha.. the way at one flash i saw nifty coming down. i was taken aback as to what happened.. :) :):)
BUt gracefully Infy shorts opened in the morning worked. and i did not make a loss or profit :( :( :(
I was happy that Infy made me money.but that was not to be.
Now the lower end of the falling wedge should give support i.e. 5150. That again needs to be seen on Monday.
Till then Happy weekend and i am off to do some God darshan and stuff :) :) :)
Cheers!!!
idhar mera system crash udhar market crash somehow managed to book at 5230 thanx to call n trade service ....now wait & watch...
ReplyDelete@ sachin: pls pray for me too, during ur yatra. Have a successful darshan & peaceful :-)
ReplyDelete@ Sameer: Let's not discuss EW too much. I see multiple lables and hence cannot assign probable trades
U r welcome to ask any Qs on EMAs :-)
i c 2 possibilities now correction ending at 5095 or break of 5341 & eod close of above 5315...
ReplyDeleteNF shorted at 5326 sl 5335 target 5285.
ReplyDeleteMINIFTY shorted at 5318 sl 5330 target 5285.
buy 5200PE at 44 sl 35 target 85.
sell 5300CE at 88 sl 95 target 50.
All target achived. But all Trade was PAPER TRADE. All trade was initiated on the basis 5min candle YAHOO chart with RSI, STOCH, 5EMA, 20EMA.
Below is the link of chart:
http://livestockmarketcharts.blogspot.in/2010/06/live-chart-for-nifty-50.html
Habbu maharaj:
ReplyDeleteA spark is enough to INSPIRE a fire!
So my spark to u is :
"If RSI, S.STOCH etc , was accurate, price wud always fall from OB & rise from OS zones , nahi ??
The very fact that accuracy is NOT 100%, means that all the FACTORS that describe a PRICE TREND are NOT captured by RSI / S.STOCH !!
I have gone far ahead now in this search. The answer lies in the maths & algorithm behind RSI, S.STOCH & has nothing to wid OB / OS.
These are "loose terms" assigned by laymen who have not read the maths behind the indicators
Stay true to the maths pls , sincere request :-)
Respected Shri sir ji,
ReplyDeleteI am not good in maths, but I will keep yr sparks in my mind. Waise aapki kripa aur saath raha to maths bhi samajh lunga.
Regards