CMP: 5179
The more I swim in the ocean of EMAs the DEEPER it gets !!
INSIGHT FOR THE DAY:
1. C1 of SMO SAR i.e Close > 5DLEMA for LONGS / < 5DHEMA for SHORTS, is REDUNDANT
for SWING TRADE
2. Close > 5LEMA for Alert On LONGS (<5HEMA for Shorts) works BETTER on INTRA -DAY or Ultra Short T/fs
WILL UPDATE THESE CHANGES INTO SMO SAR V.3.0
Ok, Coming to business today:
As per system , one should have booked 50% Shorts @ 5136-5160 zone in the first 3 hrs of trade today (see ysday's post on SUPPORT LEVELS to BOOK PROFITS)
1. Today EOD Candle shows that BUYING came in 5136 & closing above 5160 shows the IMPORTANCE of Multiple -weeks Support Zone running thru this level.
2. Price Closed > 5DLEMA , but only just.
3. Coming to the LiFO -Fibbo EMA Trade on 30mins T/f, even thought Hrly price closed > 5HrHEMA @ 3:00pm, price closed < 34EMA (@ 5188), .... so, DID NOT GET THE BUY TRIGGER. we shall keep an eye out tomo
SMO SAR VERDICT
SMO SAR LEVEL = 5266 (for 30th Mar'12)
1. Carry balance shorts with EOD TSL @ 5266 (5DEMA will change dy/dx here)
2. Keep an eye on 34EMA, 30mins, wherever price opens, a 1 hr close above HrHEMA & above 34EMA tomo , can USHER IN A LONG TRADE !
4. No point calling for reversals based on 1 EOD candle, cannot assure PROBABILITY.
5. Pls note , that notwithstanding the Late Spurt up intra-day, on EOD basis we have formed a LOWER Hi- Lo (Basic rule for TREND !!)
6. Also, tomo is a FRIDAY, will we see bhaari-bharkum buying ?? Search me :-)
Lets see if we close tomo > 5230-5266. That would support a Reversal hunch & give a HIGH PROBABILITY LONG TRADE on swing basis!
cheers
The more I swim in the ocean of EMAs the DEEPER it gets !!
INSIGHT FOR THE DAY:
1. C1 of SMO SAR i.e Close > 5DLEMA for LONGS / < 5DHEMA for SHORTS, is REDUNDANT
for SWING TRADE
2. Close > 5LEMA for Alert On LONGS (<5HEMA for Shorts) works BETTER on INTRA -DAY or Ultra Short T/fs
WILL UPDATE THESE CHANGES INTO SMO SAR V.3.0
Ok, Coming to business today:
As per system , one should have booked 50% Shorts @ 5136-5160 zone in the first 3 hrs of trade today (see ysday's post on SUPPORT LEVELS to BOOK PROFITS)
1. Today EOD Candle shows that BUYING came in 5136 & closing above 5160 shows the IMPORTANCE of Multiple -weeks Support Zone running thru this level.
2. Price Closed > 5DLEMA , but only just.
3. Coming to the LiFO -Fibbo EMA Trade on 30mins T/f, even thought Hrly price closed > 5HrHEMA @ 3:00pm, price closed < 34EMA (@ 5188), .... so, DID NOT GET THE BUY TRIGGER. we shall keep an eye out tomo
SMO SAR VERDICT
SMO SAR LEVEL = 5266 (for 30th Mar'12)
1. Carry balance shorts with EOD TSL @ 5266 (5DEMA will change dy/dx here)
2. Keep an eye on 34EMA, 30mins, wherever price opens, a 1 hr close above HrHEMA & above 34EMA tomo , can USHER IN A LONG TRADE !
4. No point calling for reversals based on 1 EOD candle, cannot assure PROBABILITY.
5. Pls note , that notwithstanding the Late Spurt up intra-day, on EOD basis we have formed a LOWER Hi- Lo (Basic rule for TREND !!)
6. Also, tomo is a FRIDAY, will we see bhaari-bharkum buying ?? Search me :-)
Lets see if we close tomo > 5230-5266. That would support a Reversal hunch & give a HIGH PROBABILITY LONG TRADE on swing basis!
cheers
Sir
ReplyDeleteI do not understand such bhari bharkam words DLEMA HEMA Etc..
What is ur overall view is the current rise a correction of fall from 5630 (or rather 5499) to 5135 or a fresh rally has started from 5135(or rather 5194-5200)
@SAMEER JI,
ReplyDeleteDLEMA = DAY LOW EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE
DHEMA = DAY HIGH EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE
IF YOU FOLLOW THESE YOU CAN GET ANSWER OF YOUR QUESTION.
sir it is not about knowing abbreviations it's about understanding their role and importance in a tremding / static market
ReplyDeleteDear Sameer,
ReplyDeleteHONEST ANSWER : I dont know ! And the First Thing to Learn as a TREND FOLLOWER is to stop MAKING ASSUMPTIONS
I can tell u what is the TREND for Short T/f , it is UP !!
Y ? BECOZ, WE DONT "ASSUME" , WE FOLLOW SET RULES ROBOTICALLY !!
Ans: 1. As per LiFo-Fibbo System- 34EMA ,30mins has triggered LONGS
2. Price has closed > DHEMA (Bullish in nature)
3. Price has BROKEN the Upper Resistance TL from 5499
4. Possible Tgts for this up swing : 5366 / 5462
5. SL : 5266
THIS IS THE "HIGHLY PROBABLE" TRADE SET UP FOR NOW
PLS NOTE WE STILL DONT HAVE 5-10DEMA X-over so this is an AGRESSIVE TRADE
NOTHING IS WRITTEN IN STONE AS FAR AS TA GOES, BECOZ INHERENTLY WE "FOLLOW" WHEREVER NIFTY LEADS
IF UR FAITHFUL , U WILL GAIN MORE TIMES THAN HAVING UR SL POPPED
Hope this helps u :-)
rgds