Friday, March 30, 2012

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 2nd Apr'12

CMP: 5296


BULLISH CLOSE ABOVE UTL

SMO SAR VERDICT:

1. Balance 50% Shorts  closed today @ 5266 (5DEMA has changed dy/dx today)

2. Waiting for 5-10 DEMA now to GO LONG

3. 34EMA , 30mins HAS TRIGGERED LONG TRADE @ 5238 today,
TSL now : @ 5266,
Tgts: 5332 /  5380

4. Close > 5DHEMA (5274) is VERY BULLISH

More Later over the week, bust with Q4 closing !

cheers


Thursday, March 29, 2012

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 30th Mar'12

CMP: 5179

The more I swim in the ocean of EMAs the DEEPER it gets !!

INSIGHT FOR THE DAY:

1. C1 of SMO SAR i.e Close > 5DLEMA for LONGS / < 5DHEMA for SHORTS, is  REDUNDANT
for SWING TRADE

2. Close > 5LEMA for Alert On LONGS (<5HEMA for Shorts) works BETTER on INTRA -DAY or Ultra Short T/fs

WILL UPDATE THESE CHANGES INTO SMO SAR V.3.0

Ok, Coming to business today:

As per system , one should have booked 50% Shorts @ 5136-5160 zone in the first 3 hrs of trade today (see ysday's post on SUPPORT LEVELS to BOOK PROFITS)

1. Today EOD Candle shows that BUYING came in 5136 & closing above 5160 shows the IMPORTANCE of Multiple -weeks Support Zone running thru this level.

2. Price Closed > 5DLEMA , but only just.

3. Coming to the LiFO -Fibbo EMA Trade on 30mins T/f, even thought Hrly price closed > 5HrHEMA @ 3:00pm, price closed < 34EMA (@ 5188), .... so,  DID NOT GET THE BUY TRIGGER. we shall keep an eye out tomo


SMO SAR VERDICT

SMO SAR LEVEL = 5266 (for 30th Mar'12)

1. Carry balance shorts  with EOD TSL @ 5266 (5DEMA will change dy/dx here)

2. Keep an eye on 34EMA, 30mins, wherever price opens, a 1 hr close above HrHEMA & above 34EMA tomo , can USHER IN A LONG TRADE !

4. No point calling for reversals based on 1 EOD candle, cannot assure PROBABILITY.

5. Pls note , that notwithstanding the Late Spurt up intra-day, on EOD basis we have formed a LOWER Hi- Lo (Basic rule for TREND !!)
6. Also, tomo is a FRIDAY, will we see bhaari-bharkum buying ?? Search me :-)

Lets see if we close tomo > 5230-5266. That would support a Reversal hunch & give a HIGH PROBABILITY LONG TRADE on swing basis!

cheers

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 29th Mar'12

CMP: 5195

For the Swing Trade opened @ 5325,

Nifty points gained as on EOD today : 5325-5195 = 130 pts (& still counting)

OBSVs for SMO SAR

1. Closes Bang on 5DLEMA!!!

2. No change in dy/dx of 5DEMA

3. Close below important ST/F Support TL @ 5220

4. Support Zones      : 5084  / 5133 / 5160

5. Resistance Zones :  5225 / 5256 / 5280

6. VOLS ... are the only ODDITY... pretty subdued & @ variance to TREND  ??!!

SMO SAR VERDICT:

SMO SAR LEVEL = 5250 (EOD close)

1. Carry Shorts & cover 50% @ POTENTIAL SUPPORT ZONES (i.e 5133-5160)

2. For balance 50% , carry with TSL as 5250 (@ this pt 5DEMA will change dy/dx)

cheers



Tuesday, March 27, 2012

COGNIZANT RAMBLINGS OF A TREND FOLLOWER ... :-)

WATERWORLD THY NAME !

I see the stock-market as a FLUID WORLD , FLOWING & EVER CHANGING....

7 Analogies between Markets & Water-ways :

1. Market is like a MAZE of cross-connected RIVERS , STREAMS & CANALS (some big , others small) & we are like travellers on BOATS that PLY across these water ways

(i) MAIN RIVER = Mother TREND (equivalent to LARGER DEGREE  TREND)

(ii) SIDE CHANNEL / STREAM = SUB WAVES or SMALLER DEGREE TRENDS within MOTHER TREND

2. Boat = Trading instrument (Shares, Futures , options etc)
(i) BIG BOAT = Shares / Delivery (stable, infinite time value, can always be made to FLOAT with MAIN RIVER TREND) ,

(ii) SMALL BOAT = F&O (time bound, RISKY, can be swayed away from MAIN RIVER TREND & get CAUGHT in side CHANNEL CURRENTS  i.e SMALLER DEGREE swings,
can float in MAIN RIVER , but can last only for that TRADING SERIES ,i.e till expiry)

3. Trader = Paid Traveller on BOAT
(doesnt always know DIRECTION OF CURRENT, or,
SIZE of the stream --> is he sailing on a  SIDE - channel or DOWN THE MAIN RIVER TREND ??)

4. BOAT TICKET COST  = Cost of Share / Futurz / Option ;-)

5. Low Tide = MONEY outflow / DERISK : High Tide = MONEY In-flow / RISK ON

6. LIFE JACKET: STOP LOSS - SL / TSL (helps u stay AFLOAT in case SHIP SINKS (SL) or LOCKS IN GAINS, in case u decide ur CURRENT BOAT is changing STREAMS & u JUMP SHIP (TSL) ... :-D

7. AIM of the Traveller = Stay AFLOAT, HOP & SKIP ACROSS BOATS & GRADUATE TO BIG BOAT ON MAIN RIVER
(in simple words , enter HIGH PROBABILITY TRADES, Book Profit & Multiply CAPITAL Wealth)

Now my dear FRIENDS,

May i request :

Pls co-relate these 7 ANALOGIES , and u guys VISUALISE / IMAGINE & tell me how best a TRADER  should ANALYSE & WORK OUT A HIGH PROBABILITY SET UP ,

to navigate successfully across all these RIVERS & SIDE CHANNELS , in ur choice of BOATS :-D

Wow... I love the markets :-)

cheers
SMO

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 28th Mar'12

CMP: 5243

Insight for the Day:

When market VIX is HIGH as was the case today, the 34EMA,30mins -21EMA,5mins LIFO intra-day trading system can get WHIPSAWED !!
(errenous BUY signal generated @ 2:00pm followed by TSL hit @ 5230,
immediately followed by another errenous SELL @ 2:30pm)

Today all systems generated FALSETTOs -->
Even the HrHi-Lo EMA SYSTEM Failed to INTERPRET the moves between 2:00 PM & 3:00 PM today (generated FALSE SELL) !!

INFERENCE:
All I can conclude for now,  is that NO TREND FOLLOWING SYSTEM is 100% BULLET PROOF,
and esp on SMALLER DEGREES (i,e INTRA-DAY) , if PRICE VOLATILITY is HIGH,  then any TREND FOLLOWING  SYSTEM will definitely face whip-saws.

TREND FOLLOWING NEEDS A TREND TO WORK,  Yo-yoing prices @ smaller degrees will cause WHIPSAWS !!

Just as I accepted the PROFITS that LiFO-Fibbo generated these past few TRENDING days, with the same balance & humility I accept the SL hits today. ITS AN OPERATIONAL HAZARD, NO REMEDY :-)

COMING TO THE SWING (EOD) TRADE:

CANDLES & TLs :
1. EOD we  have a DOJI with a LONG Lower Leg. --> Sign of POTENTIAL BULL REVERSAL
Needs to be supported by a White Candle tomorrow with CLOSE above 5244
(ideally CLose >> RES ZONE of 5256-5280, will CONFIRM a BULL REVERSAL)

2. Price again closed >> Support TLs @ 5220, Can be SUPPORT here

SMO SAR VERDICT:

HONEST VIEW AS I SEE IT --> SURPRISE, SURPRISE:  DUAL PLAY POSSIBLE

1. For pure SAR trader, short trade from 5325 is STILL ON, SMO SAR LEVEL : 5256

2. Condition C1 satisfied today: Price close > 5DLEMA (@ 5206) , ON GREEN ALERT for LONGS , after C2

SUMMARY :

In such situations, were DUALITY is on DISPLAY, Keep it SIMPLE.. look @ SUPPORTS & RES

Relax, have a chilled beer in hand & wait to see if we get a EOD close >> 5280 ... GO LONG, else GO short on BREAK BELOW 5220

cheers

Monday, March 26, 2012

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 27th Mar'12

CMP: 5184

For the faithful Trend follower, FAITH MOVES MOUNTAINS!

who had gone short @ 5325 on Thursday 22nd Mar'12 & CARRIED THE TRADE STRICTLY WITH EOD SMO SAR Levels (5DEMA change),

would have gained a handsome 140 pts & still counting as on today.

SUPPORT ZONE : 5084 / 5160

RESISTANCES    : 5220 / 5256-5280 / 5330

OBSVS:

1. EOD close below 5205-5210 support TL

2. EOD close decisively below 55DEMA (@ 5240) . Previously, it had taken Nifty 2 months to overcome 55DEMA, once broken!

3. VOLS are LOW, only pt sticking out like a sore thumb against what has been an UNIFORM DOWNTREND  (the good pt is the EOD Vols on RED days is >> than Vols on GREEN days, so there the VOLS are supporting DIRECTION, but overall vols are low)

SMO SAR VERDICT:

SMO SAR Level = 5256

Carry Shorts with SL @ 5256 (EOD basis level for change in direction of 5DEMA)

For Intra-day players, use the 34EMA trade near support zones !

cheers


Sunday, March 25, 2012

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 26th Mar'12

CMP: 5278

SUMARY of Key Levels for:

1. BULLS : Need to Break out     > 5330

2. BEARS : Need to Break down < 5216

Nifty is poised delicately as of now, Wk & Day trend is DOWN, but Month is still supportive (if 5205-5220)is protected.

VOLS are low on weekly & Monthly, so one should be careful with SHORTS

SMO SAR VERDICT:

Had closed all balance 50% shorts (created @5325) @ 5263 on Friday. (21EMA, 5mins as TSL of the Fibbo -LIFO trade )

For the pure SAR TRADER:

Since EOD close was < 5294,

Carry 50% short with TSL @ SMO SAR = 5301 (change in direction of 5DEMA will happen here EOD)

EOD, Wk & Monthly T/F charts for your view

cheers



Friday, March 23, 2012

Gudhi Padva cha sarvaaana Hardik Shubheccha !

Wishing all of you a very Happy New Year .


May the coming year usher in Peace, Prosperity, Happiness & Success in all endevours


Jai Raghuveer, Jai Ganesh !!






Thursday, March 22, 2012

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 23rd Mar'12

CMP: 5228.45

Beautiful & Fantastic day, for the TREND FOLLOWER ... 22nd Mar'12 !

Beautiful - becoz it gave me an EUREKA MOMENT (and some money too  on the side ;-))

Acknowledgements:
1. First & foremost must acknowlegde guidance of Shri. Illango ji , rgding use of 34 EMA.
We all know that Fibbo EMAs hold Key market info.

Question was: How to harness power of Fibbo EMAs to VERY RELIABLY detect trend changes, & HIGH - PROBABILITY SET UPs ??

2. Then, thanks to Shri. Kameswara Sarma ji, for asking "funny" Questions on ENTRY & EXITs for SMO SAR (which is meant esentially for SWING TRADE).  He has been behind me for some time now , to work out a Robust & Reliable INTRA- DAY or  ULTRA SHORT T/f  trading-system.

This forced me to explore & combine the 5Hi-Lo EMA concept with Fibbo EMAs on VARYING DEGREES (T/fs)

RESULT : 
We have potentially, a POWERFUL TOOL FOR TRADING, that can TRIGGER ENTRY based on :-
1. Fibbo EMAs @ Lower Degree (half hourly T/f , choice of 21 / 34 or 55 EMA is to be decided INTELLIGENTLY based on the PARTICULAR TREND) ; &
2. Can be Morphed into SWING TRADE , guided by by a SAR system (use JNSAR, and (or) SMO SAR, or even simple 10DEMA @ Daily T/f  of Higher Degree) 


OBSVs :

1. Never got 5-10 Bull DEMA x-over... instead we have a 5-10DEMA DIVERGENCE (indicating FAST FALL set-up)

2. Since market never closed > 5358 for more than 2 hrs, I was personally saved from GOING LONG intra -day & infact on breach of 34EMA on 30 mins, opportunity presented itself for SHORTS (that's the reason for my happiness today) !!

3. Tomo is Friday, WEEK CLOSING. Weekly supports @ 5160 / 5085

4. LTL from 4588 broken today. One more close below 5310 & its BEARISH TREND ON SWING

SMO SAR VERDICT:

SMO SAR LEVEL: 5295
Carry 50% shorts opened @ 5325 , with TSL as  :-

1. change in 5DEMA(approx @ 5295) , or

2. LIFO-Fibbo TSL as 21EMA, on 5mins T/F

Rest from charts !

Stay true to the maths, it will reward you. For the Trend Follower : Follow Price, it is the ONLY REALITY :-)

cheers









Quick words for today's trade .... 22nd Mar'12

Fibbo EMA + SAR = Stop & Reverse !!!!!!!!!

Was able to book 68 pts from ysdays LONGS & go SHORT on breach of 34EMA, 30mins @ 5325 , part booked @ 5241.

Carrying balance 50% with TSL as Fibbo LIFO EMA (21EMA,5mins)
Wud i have been able to do this kind fo trade in my OLD TRADING AVATAR ??

Today feels like a NEW BIRTH  , JAKE SULLY JUST GOT FREE IN ANDORA !

More Later.... wot a day, wot a day, to learn & earn :-)

Good luck ppl, cheers !

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 22nd Mar'12

CMP: 5365

Closed short @ 5295 for balance 50%, Nifty points gained : 65
Avg pts made : 83 pts (100 & 65, per lot)

Candles, TLs & Chart Patterns:

1. Morning Star on Daily Charts (BULLISH)

2. Close above 20DSMA (@ 5353) . One more EOD close above 5353 will Confirm BULLISHNESS

3. 5245 -5295 is the Support Zone as per Lower TLs

4. Bollinger's contracting on Daily Charts, imply possible Uptrend to 5520-5530 Levels

5. Ascending CT pattern being formed (Last Leg "e" may be in progress UP to 5520 zone)

6. Still no change in VOLS , hints @ a vacillating Corrective

EMAs & LIFO:
1. Price closes > 5DLEMA (Satisfies C1 for SMO SAR, now WAITING for C2 to trigger Long Trade)

2. Price closes > 34 EMA, 30mins @5295 triggering Longs on Intraday, to be trailed with 18/21EMA on 5 mins , TRADE IS STILL LIVE

SMO SAR VERDICT :

C1 satisfied , now waiting for 5-10 DEMA BULL x-over to Trigger LONG TRADE
(if we close EOD above 5358)

SMO SAR LEVEL: 5358 (for tomorrow) , SL :20 Pts ; Tgt : 5520 (potential 160 pts UP)

cheers



Tuesday, March 20, 2012

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 21st Mar'12

CMP: 5275

Candles:
1. EOD formed a Range-Bound INR bar... indicating INDECISION 
2. 14RSi on 30mins has shown +ve DIVERGENCE w.r.t  PRICE (can mean STF REVERSAL?)

TLs  & VOLS:
EOD price is hugging the LTL support. Close above 5285 tomorrow may indicate UP REVERSAL

Day Supports : 5205-5220 / 5257
Day Resistances : 5285 / 5330 / 5385

Fall is on LOW VOLS..... treat Shorts with care, place TSL @ 5295 (EOD basis)

LIFO SYSTEM (Fibbo EMA Ribbons on 30mins & 5mins) :
1. 55DEMA ( currently @ 5336) has supported the fall from 5499. If  this zone 5333-5336 HOLDS tomorrow, we are in for a REVERSAL UP (it would also amplify a Double Bottom pattern if 5333 holds)
2. 34EMA, 30mins @ 5300, keep an eye on Price close on 30 mins above or below this level.

SMO SAR VERDICT:

SMO SAR LEVEL : 5295

Carry 50% qty (Shorted @5360 on Friday) , with TSL @ 5DEMA (ruffly @ 5295)

This also tallies with the LIFO-34EMA @ 30mins (5300 @ open tomorrow)

cheers

Monday, March 19, 2012

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 20th Mar'12

CMP: 5257

Smooth trading day..
Booked 100 pts @ 5260 (shorts triggered @5360, upon 5-10 DEMA x-over ) for 50% Qty;

Day Supports     : 5170 / 5205-5220

Day Resistances : 5280 / 5333

SMO SAR VERDICT:

1. Swing Support LTL breach witnessed today @ 5280 (Bearish)

2. Carry balance 50% shorts, till you see change in Slope of 5DEMA (for tomo , ruffly @EOD > 5294)

POINTS TO NOTE :

For the dedicated System-trader / Trend-follower

1. The accuracy of the ALGORITHM for the past 2 months, has been breath-taking.

2. Can combine this SWING Hi-Lo 5EMA concept, with 34EMA, 30mins & 18EMA , 5mins for a simple & reliable INTRADAY LIFO (Last In, First Out)  trading statergy.

i.e based on the SMO SAR SWING VERDICT, one can work out 2 Possibilities for Nifty the next day & filter them to 1 with the LIFO Intra-strategy.

--> An important reason to do a LIFO trade intra-day , is so that :
1. We ENTER a trade based on TREND @HIGHER DEGREE  ,  &
2. We EXIT the trade based on moves @ LOWER DEGREE (T/f wise)

Think about pt no.2 in detail. The one who gets it will be rewarded the most INTRADAY :-)

Reality of Price is Best Reflected in the Mathematics of its EMAs !

cheers



Sunday, March 18, 2012

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 19th Mar'12

CMP: 5318

Weekly T/F

1. Candles:If one sees the latest 2 Wkly candles, you can observe the TUSSLE between BULLS & BEARS @ the 5300-5330 zone

2. TRENDLINES: Below 5300, the Wkly TL gets broken & will open DOWSIDE TGTs of
Tgts : 5145 / 5083 / 5060  on WEEKLY T/f

3. EMAs: Weekly Price is trading below 5WkEMA & will seeks out 5WkLEMA @ 5244

Week's Supports     : 5060-5083 / 5145 / 5244
Week's Resistances : 5333 / 5363 / 5425


DAILY T/F

1. Candles:
THREE BLACK CROWS formed on EOD charts (Bearish)

2. TRENDLINES:
EOD Trendlines support @ 5260

Days's Supports     :  5260 / 5280
Day's Resistances   : 5333 / 5358

SMO SAR VERDICT :

1. C1 & C2 Triggered for SMO SAR, ENTRY FOR SHORT TRADE

As said on friday, Short on price trade below 5360 ,

Q: Where to Exit ?
Ans:
(i)  50% shorts to be Booked @Daily T/L support @ 5260 ,
(ii) Balance 50% to be carried with TSL as change in 5DEMA (if close above 5360 for tomorrow)

cheers




Thursday, March 15, 2012

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 16th Mar'12


CMP: 5380

If one had traded long from 5430 day before ROBOTICALLY, would have ideally made 23 pts

50% - @ 5490 (60 pts)
& balance 50% Stopped out today @ 5415 (= -15 pts) , Avg = 23 pts

For Tomorrow:

Tomorrow is a Friday, Weekly close on view. Have uploaded the Weekly Chart again,

Weekly Support kick in @ : 5300 / 5360 (5WkEMA) 

Daily charts:
1. Supports      :   5370  / 5334 / 5274 
2. Resistances  :   5405 (20DSMA) / 5429 / 5480

SMO SAR VERDICT  :

1. Price closed < 5DHEMA (@ 5439), C1 Satisfied for SHORTS, ON RED ALERT

2. 5WkEMA , 5DLEMA both @ 5360, may Support EoWk ??

2. When to go short ?
Ans: When we get 5-10 DEMA BEAR X-over. ( price trades & closes below 5360)

Summary:

Wait for EOD (till 3:00pm) & short ONLYonce price trades below 5360, for a HIGH PROBABILITY SHORT TRADE

cheers


Wednesday, March 14, 2012

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 15th Mar'12

CMP : 5464

Kicking myself for not BELIEVEING IN THE  LONG TRIGGER!!

would have made 70 pts BTST .... the best trade possible... Anyways, no complaints.... better stay out when unsure.

For tomo:

SMO SAR verdict:

1. If entered long @ 5425-5430 ysday, one shuould have ideally booked 50% @ day open (had indicated RESzone @ 5500, refer ysday post) .

2. Balance 50% can be carried  @ 15 pts below entry i.e 5410-5415... or

3. Be ROBOTIC & carry LONGS from 5425. TSL , is when 5DEMA changes SLOPE (will happen if we close EOD roughly below 5390)

cheers

PS: No big TAKEOFFIn VOLS... makes me doubt if this UP move will last ...





Tuesday, March 13, 2012

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 14th Mar'12

CMP: 5430

Straight to the pt

 SMO SAR :

1. C2 satisfied:  5-10DEMABull x-over has occcured on EOD , C1: was already achvd on 9th Mar'12

2. Triggered LONG Trade @ 5425-5430 , SL :5400

3. Where to Exit Longs ?? : When 5DEMAchanges direction

It seems a little bit strange that we are getting our Buy signal , so fast after getting a Sell signal last week.
Also, a set of resistances stack up in the 5450-5500 zone...

So, for Pragmatic traders, i would say ... pls wait 1-2 days in case u are unsure, this may be a "CLASSIC HIGHERDEGREE WHIPSAW" that even SMO SAR may not be able to avoid

DISCLAIMER: I have not initiated any trade today!

cheers

Monday, March 12, 2012

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 13th Mar'12

CMP: 5360

Candles :

1. EOD was a big 100 + pts Gap-up (to the delight of Kalyani i hope ;-D )

2. But price failed to maintain & resisted @ 5420 (refer prev post for RES zones)

3. VOLS very low again today.. smells of a CORRECTIVE

4. ADI seconds the obsv with falling below 25% levels, for 1st time since Jan'12 (pls note though, that nothing's written in stone as far as M.indicators go :-)

OBSV FOR SMO SAR :

1. Price Closed < 5DHEMA (@ 5372

2. 5DEMA (close price) is < 10DEMA (close price) , = CORRECTIVE in PLAY

SMO SAR VERDICT :

Still waiting for 5-10DEMA BULL  x-over, to initiate LONG TRADE.
 (ruffly @ close above 5369-5380)

cheers



Saturday, March 10, 2012

SMO SAR for Nifty ji : for 12th Mar'12

CMP : 5334

WEEKLY:

1. Weekly Candles has potential of transforming into a MORNING STAR (requires next weekly candle to close above 5383 on Weekly Close Basis

2. Wk Price  close > 5WkLEMA (@ 5223) --> BULLISH ON WEEKLY (satisfies C1 of SMO SAR)

3. Price rise was on LOW VOLS... @ odds w.r.t TREND.... be prepared for WHIPSAWS

DAILY T/F:

1. EOD Candles have given a BREAK AWAY GAP, with Opening Range Breakout (ORB) . Price did not fall even though it was a Friday & ppl held on to LONGS --> BULLISH ON DAILY

2. EOD Price close > 5DLEMA (5258) & closed just below 5DHEMA (@ 5344) --> BULLISH ON DAILY (satisfies C1 of SMO SAR, now ON ALERT for LONGS, wait for 5-10DEMA BULL X-over)


SMO SAR VERDICT:

1. On Alert for Going Long on Day T/F, waiting to satisfy C2 (will happen if price closes > 5380)

2.  Weekly Support Zones      :   5050 -5086 / 5158 / 5300
     Weekly Resistance Zones  :   5455 / 5577 / 5647

3. Daily Support Zones           :   5220 / 5280 / 5335
    Daily Resistance Zones       :   5380 -5400 / 5429-5454 / 5521


SUMMARY : Keep an eye on DAY CLOSE PRICES , go LONG only if we close EOD > 5380

cheers



       

Friday, March 9, 2012

RAHUL DRAVID - DAVID AMONGST GOLIATHS

Straight from the heart of a Rahul Dravid Fan.....

As Happy as I am for a man who is leaving on his own terms, & leaving after having achieved everything, I feel sad that we wont see this CHAMPION CRICKETER wear the INDIA CAP again

I am a sports-buff. Infact, was once a budding cricketer during my younger days & always tried to copy 2 players Sachin Tendulkar & Rahul Dravid. They were my Cricketing Gods . No one could command as much of my unconditional devotion as these 2 would ! They both redefined INDIAN CRICKET & INSPIRED A WHOLE GENERATION OF SPORTSMEN.

Yet both are as different as Chalk & Cheese !

If Sachin is all about Hand-Eye, Quicksilver Feet & God-gifted power & timing;
Rahul Dravid oozes copy-book class, perfect technique, soft hands, & A SUPER LARGE HEART (something that even the great Little Master does not have in as much abundance)

As every kid would, I used to get sucked into comparisons , Sachin vs Dravid... who was gr8 ?

Then I realised, comparing Mt. Everest with K2 does not make sense , both make the HIMALAYAS !!

Rahul Dravid inspired us to do what was RIGHT, every action to be focussed on GREATER GOOD, taught us to be HUMBLE, YET AGGRESSIVE WITH UNWAVERING FOCUS. 

A role-model team-player, selfless leader, brave warrior, wise beyond years, equi-poised, a thorough gentleman, unfazed by pressure, unassuming about his fame, shy even !

For a man who had earned millions by the time he was 25, he had his heads firmly on his shoulders, with the singular focus of bettering his skill, to become World renowned as the Impregnable WALL. On difficult wickets, seaming conditions, bouncy tracks, RAHUL DRAVID was the MAN FRIDAY , the FAIL SAFE for Team India, the one CONSTANT in a procession of wickets!

His RELATIVE PERFORMANCE INDEX IN "AWAY TESTS" is the BEST amongst all INDIAN BATSMEN ...  When Rahul Dravid did well, INDIA won.

And who can forget he kept wickets in the 2003 World Cup in SA , India made the FINALS!

In market parlance, Rahul was the FII Fav, a Heavyweight & an Outperformer on the TEAM-DEX, aka Banking on the SENSEX  !~!  ;-D

As a captain , he did not work for external praise, never brought emotions in the line of decsions (declaring vs Pakistan when Sachin was on 194 is a shining example). He continued where Dada lefet it & brought in the young brigade (Suresh Raina, Robin Uthapa, MS Dhoni all thrived under him).

The best part of Rahul was that despite his achievements he remained Old-school , his batting always refined. The epitome of poise, grace & measure in response.

One hell of a man, inspirational, & role model. A man we all wish to emulate.

God Bless u Rahul Dravid, ur my real life Hero, A DAVID AMONGST GOLIATHS !






Thursday, March 8, 2012

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 09th Mar'12

CMP: 5220

EOD CANDLES:
As expected 5161-5171 zone SUPPORTED the fall & buying @ lower levels took Nifty up to close @ 5220 which is an important WEEKLY & DAILY LEVEL

Tomorrow is Friday, week closing:

5303 / 5360 will now offer RESISTANCE on WEEKLY CLOSING

Supports : 5161-5220

Resistances : 5281 / 5303 / 5360

Coming to system trading....

SMO SAR VERDICT:

1. Price << 5DLEMA (5240) , carry shorts. Exit only if 5DEMA changes Direction (ruffly price needs to close EOD @ 5335)

My PE trade was closed on Tuesday (with avg gain of 130 pts), but ideally the Short Trade from 5429 is still ON !

Keep reminding urself everyday:

For the System Trader: Be Disciplined & Follow the Trend, its the only True Friend....



Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Another IM Degree EW count for Nifty ji :-)

If last week was Eureka for Parabolic Regression Slopes (dy/dx) , Looks like this week is meant for Creative EW lables this time round !

DZZ @ IM DEGREE from 6339 ??

High chance that 2nd Corrective (Y arm) will do a CT or a FLAT

EW Tgts : from 38.2%-61.8% of 2252-6339 = 3813-4295-4777

See if this lights up some of them Wave Neurons in ur cerebrum ;-)

cheers

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

New EW lables for Nifty ji

We have eventful developments in the past few days,

SMO SAR almost gave a BULLISH signal (was to be confirmed @ month close).

Then  Feb'12 month closed <5MnthHEMA @ 5383 & the BULL IMPULSE option fizzled out

Co-relating Monthly & Wkly Candles & DEMAs with EW,

I am @ PRESENT inclined to look @ the following EW count from 6339 as a IM DEGREE  CORRECTIVE ZZ with C as an Ending Diagonal

2.a 6339 5177 -1162
2.b 5177  5944 767 -66.0% of a
2.c 5944 4338.116 -1605.88 138.2% of a

IM DEGREE 2.C , may tgt : 4338 (138.2%), 4201 (150%) & 4000 (161.8%)

Within C

C.a 5944   4720 -1224
C.b 4720 5629 909 -74.3%
C.c
5629 4405 -1224 100.0%

NOTE: This EW musing is purely to satisfy Academic urges pls......Am done predicting, as far as TRADING GOES, only follow the TREND

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 07th Mar'12

CMP: 5222

Obsvs:

1. Good TA, but SUB-OPTIMAL TRADING PLAN from my side !

2. Had booked 195 pts for 50% Lots @ 5235 @ 9:20AM, Then  was supposed to wait EOD basis to sell off balance 50% PE ,

But decided to sq off PEs due to steep rise (price almost hit the 5DHEMA @ 5392) ,
.....so made only 70 pts on balance Qtys & missed the leg down again to 5222 :-(

Anyways, coming to TA:

SMO SAR VERDICT:

1. Price approaching support zone  @ 5161-5225

2. Price Below << 5DLEMA (says continue holding shorts, if u r short)

3. Sq. of shorts if Developing 5DEMA changes sign (if EOD price is 5335 & above ruffly, pl do the excel calc on the FLY)

4. Remember the Weekly basis Tgt : 5066 --> 20WkSMA :-)

cheers

Monday, March 5, 2012

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: 06th Mar'12

CMP : 5280


Will keep it very short, sweet & simple today, bcoz that's how the day was !

Obsv for SMO SAR:

1. EOD Price closed << 5DLEMA (Bearish, carry shorts opened @ 5429,

2. Be mindful of support zones : 5225-5260

3. Crucial TL Breach today @ Opening below 5259

4. Fall is on LOW VOLS, @ ODDS with PRICE TREND. Keep eyes open for ST bounce

5. 5DEMA firmly below 10DEMA

6. Pls RE-READ ysday's post on Weekly T/Fs.
Price was already below 5WkHEMA & now has gone below << 5WkEMA @ 5335 today & has HIGH PROBABILITY of seeking out 20WkSMA @ 5066, if supported by VOLS !!

SMO SAR VERDICT:

1. Book 50% Shorts @ 5225-5260 zone

2. Carry the remaining Qty, till you see change in slope of 5DEMA (to be calculated on the FLY)



cheers

Sunday, March 4, 2012

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 05th Mar'12

CMP: 5359

Weekly T/F:

Candles:
1. Wkly Candles have formed Lower Hi-Los

2. Buying seen @ 5305-5330 zone , if Broken will usher in a slide to 5160 , if Held will show levels of 5600 again!

Monthly T/F:

Candles:
1. Mnthly Candle has formed a Reverse Shakeout (saying there is RESISTANCE @ & above 5385)

2. Trend is Bullish if we close above 5401 , & Bearish other wise EOM basis.

SMO SAR VIEW:

Weekly Price Close below 5WkHEMA , means price shall seek out 20WkSMA (@ 5065), on WEEKLY BASIS

Rest from charts pls

cheers


Thursday, March 1, 2012

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 2nd Mar'12

CMP: 5339.75

Ysday I had blogged:

"Hold Short (created @ 5429) , with SL @ 5436 for SWING TRADE, Tgt : 5331-5344"

The tgt was achieved in the first 25 mins today ! Funnily, I did not expect such a weak day today, and that's why i was labelling it a SWING TGT

Anyways, am not the one complaining @ this windfall ;-D

Coming to business:

CANDLES:

1.EOD was a Black Candle with a Longish Tail (buying strength @ 5298-5320 levels)

2. VOLS were Low again, so DIRECTION should be taken with a Pinch of Salt

TRENDLINES:

We have an intresting confluence of 3 TLs , TLs suggest the following:
1. RESISTANCES @ 5362-5395 & 5420 zones

2. SUPPORTS @ 5362 (if Nifty manages to blob up above 5362 & hold the level)

OBSV for SMO SAR:

1. Price closed @ 5339.75 << 5DLEMA @ 5342) , BEARISH

2. 5-10 DEMA BEAR x-over is firmly in place & 5DEMA has not changed DIRECTION yet.

SMO SAR VERDICT:
Hold Shorts created @ 5429 with SL @ 5395 (above this level 5DEMA will change Curve again)

Even in the worst case, if TSL is hit we make 34 pts !!

If Nifty does not show 5395, we can be rest assured of a DIP to 5210-5225.

The real beauty of the SAR SYSTEM is in realising that PATIENCE IS VIRTUE & that TREND IS THE ONLY FRIEND :-)

cheers




Have become an avowed believer in ROBOTIC / SYSTEM TRADING..