CMP: 5281 :-)))))))
Smiling end to end day today !
What a fall ..... and funnily SMO SAR gave the C2 confirmation to Short
The markets dropped many hints today for the keen observer :-
1. Traded below ysdays close 5429 in the opening 5 mins of Trade & never recovered the level.
2. Developing 5DEMA went << Developing 10DEMA @ 5331, with more than 3 hrs of Trading left , TRIGGERING C2 of SMO SAR !
3. Today Nifty has gone below its DEVELOPING 5Mnth HEMA (ruffly @ 5401), and it has gone below by quite some margin almost 120 pts !
Now, the REAL INFO to analyse is --> This 5Mnth HEMA is gonna remain CONSTANT @ 5401 (unless Nifty can somehow take out the High of 5629 in the next 2 trading days !!)
So for Practical purposes 5Mnth HEMA is FIXED for Feb'12 @ 5401.
Million $$ Q is : Can Nifty gain 120 pts in 2 days to close above >> 5401 for Month Feb'12 ??
If we close Feb'12 below 5401, as per SMO SAR Nifty is a Short on the Monthly T/F
(if u re-collect my blog last week I said Nifty is BULLISH if it closed for Feb'12 above the then DEVELOPING 5Mnth HEMA @ 5372 :-)))
4. Look @ Monthly Candle Real Bodies
One can see the Importance of the 5331 in Nifty today, y so ???
Ans: 5331 --> Is a Previous Monthly Candle Real Body Close Level, so once this level was BROKEN to the DOWN, the flood gates opened! Now this same 5331-5381 band (prev Support) will now do reverse duty & RESIST Upmoves by Nifty.
5. Look @ Weekly T/F says we are headed for a cycle down now to test the 10Wk-EMA @ 5225, (whenever Nifty Breaks 5WkHEMA it seeks out the 10WkEMA)
6. Oddly, 5381 is also the 20DSMA & we have closed a 100 pts below it today.
SMO SAR VERDICT:
1 Satisfied C1 & C2 today --> SMO SAR says there is a HIGH PROBABILITY that the market has switched to SELL ON RALLIES MODE
2. Fall was on LOWER VOLS.... so this is slightly @ ODDS to the DIRECTION OF PRICE, hence I say SHORT ONLY ON RALLIES & NOT BLIDNLY @ CMP
3. Short on every Rally towards 5331-5381 , Reverse Pyramiding the Qty (lots) , i.e. Short 25% @ 5331 & balance 75% 5381 to MAXIMISE the RISK - REWARD.
4. Tgt : 5215-5225 / 5063 (may not come immediately, this is a Swing Trade Target)
5. SL @ 5429 (all levels in SPOT),
Pls see the charts on various T/Fs to understand the implications of H-L EMA on various Degrees
cheers
Smiling end to end day today !
What a fall ..... and funnily SMO SAR gave the C2 confirmation to Short
The markets dropped many hints today for the keen observer :-
1. Traded below ysdays close 5429 in the opening 5 mins of Trade & never recovered the level.
2. Developing 5DEMA went << Developing 10DEMA @ 5331, with more than 3 hrs of Trading left , TRIGGERING C2 of SMO SAR !
3. Today Nifty has gone below its DEVELOPING 5Mnth HEMA (ruffly @ 5401), and it has gone below by quite some margin almost 120 pts !
Now, the REAL INFO to analyse is --> This 5Mnth HEMA is gonna remain CONSTANT @ 5401 (unless Nifty can somehow take out the High of 5629 in the next 2 trading days !!)
So for Practical purposes 5Mnth HEMA is FIXED for Feb'12 @ 5401.
Million $$ Q is : Can Nifty gain 120 pts in 2 days to close above >> 5401 for Month Feb'12 ??
If we close Feb'12 below 5401, as per SMO SAR Nifty is a Short on the Monthly T/F
(if u re-collect my blog last week I said Nifty is BULLISH if it closed for Feb'12 above the then DEVELOPING 5Mnth HEMA @ 5372 :-)))
4. Look @ Monthly Candle Real Bodies
One can see the Importance of the 5331 in Nifty today, y so ???
Ans: 5331 --> Is a Previous Monthly Candle Real Body Close Level, so once this level was BROKEN to the DOWN, the flood gates opened! Now this same 5331-5381 band (prev Support) will now do reverse duty & RESIST Upmoves by Nifty.
5. Look @ Weekly T/F says we are headed for a cycle down now to test the 10Wk-EMA @ 5225, (whenever Nifty Breaks 5WkHEMA it seeks out the 10WkEMA)
6. Oddly, 5381 is also the 20DSMA & we have closed a 100 pts below it today.
SMO SAR VERDICT:
1 Satisfied C1 & C2 today --> SMO SAR says there is a HIGH PROBABILITY that the market has switched to SELL ON RALLIES MODE
2. Fall was on LOWER VOLS.... so this is slightly @ ODDS to the DIRECTION OF PRICE, hence I say SHORT ONLY ON RALLIES & NOT BLIDNLY @ CMP
3. Short on every Rally towards 5331-5381 , Reverse Pyramiding the Qty (lots) , i.e. Short 25% @ 5331 & balance 75% 5381 to MAXIMISE the RISK - REWARD.
4. Tgt : 5215-5225 / 5063 (may not come immediately, this is a Swing Trade Target)
5. SL @ 5429 (all levels in SPOT),
Pls see the charts on various T/Fs to understand the implications of H-L EMA on various Degrees
cheers
No comments:
Post a Comment