Sunday, January 29, 2012

Outlook for Nifty ji_30th jan'12

Some obsv for rumination :-
1. We have moved up close to 700 pts in 3weeks from 4532. This is highest rise since that 770 pts rise from 5177 to 5944 in Feb-Mar'11!
2. Weekly Close is BULLISH & 5WEMA-10WEMA x-over has occured.
3. Daily Charts also suggest Bullish Trend INTACT, with price closing above 5DHEMA

4. The LTF UTL (green) comes in @ 5248
5. The Short term UTL @ 5233 . Will it resist?
6. Daily Candles have formed a HANGING MAN PATTERN on EOD (bearish reversal on STF) ?? Needs price confirmation tomorrow

SMO SAR:
Long Trade triggered @ 4706 on 3rd Jan'12 has made 500 pts!!

As per the Rule for EXITS: One can still hold longs until the pt where the (dy/dx) of the 5DEMA changes sign.

Lets wait to see if we get that INFLECTION PT TOMORROW.

2. Pls NOTE, this is not an INVITATION TO SHORT. Short only when our 2 ENTRY TRIGGERS are met (close below 5DLEMA & 5-10EMA BEAR X-over).

Rule for the Markets:

PREDICT .. WE PERISH, FOLLOW.. WE FLOURISH !

cheers
SMO
Posted by at

4 comments:

  1. yg123January 30, 2012 at 3:37 AM

    Dear SMO,

    Regarding the entry rules, the second rule (5-10 EMA cross-over) can occur only if first (close below 5HEMA) has occurred. As such, the first rule is superfluous and can be dropped. The simplified rule can be just the second rule.

    -yg

    ReplyDelete
  2. shriramJanuary 30, 2012 at 4:06 AM

    Dear YG,

    Sometimes 5-10DEMA BEARISH x-over happens, prior to close below 5DLEMA .... and sometime 5-10BULLISH x-over happens prior to close ABOVE 5DHEMA

    These give false signals.

    Hence the sequence of the conditions

    Can you pls indicate Nifty movement where 5-10x-over alone has proved sufficient ? Better we check it once, before amending the RULES

    cheers
    SMO

    ReplyDelete
  3. shriramJanuary 30, 2012 at 4:27 AM

    contd...

    Dear YG,

    Pls see Nifty price action in Dec'11

    on 22nd Dec'1: Price closed EOD @ 4718 (above the 5DHEMA).
    If one had gone LONG here w.o waiting for 5-10 EMA x-over his SL would have been triggered on 29th Dec'11 (price close below 5DLEMA)

    Hence the 2 conditions.
    Significance of SEQUENCE is as FOLLOWS:

    In most case
    1. when prices closes EOD above 5DHEMA , it means we are in Wave A or W1 of that DEGREE
    2. When condtion 1 occurs & then 5-10DEMA BULLISH x-over also occurs, it is a SIGN of Wave C or W3 in PLAY

    This is the wave we are trying to catch. Hence the importance of SEQUENCE of TRIGGERS

    Same logic for SHORTS :-)

    cheers

    ReplyDelete
  4. yg123January 30, 2012 at 4:50 AM

    Thanks for clarification. Just for curiosity, could you point some instances where x-over happened prior to close below 5LEMA or above 5HEMA.

    -yg

    ReplyDelete

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