SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 11th May'12

CMP: 4965.7

Its the same story ... 

Lifo Fibbo + SMO SAR =   Price Warrior's Lode-star !


Today was owned , absolutely creamed by Lifo-Fibbo ..

Ysday had blogged , will look to sell on all rises towards 5DLEMA (5025)

Today @ 13:00hrs, went short when price failed to trade :-
1. Above 5DLEMA ; and
2. Broke below & closed < 34EMA, 30mins @ 5022

Closed all shorts @ 61.8% Fibbo support .. 4950 --> 60 NS pts in the bag in 1 hr !

Anyways, the SMO SAR - LPFt once ready for display, shall visually exhibit the Entry / Exits ...


SMO SAR VERDICT:

SMO SAR EOD : 5030

No open positions, so what do i do ?
1. For Bears:
5DEMA is wid -ve d/dx, so SELL on Rallies towards 34EMA @ 5014,
Tgts : 4940 / 4864

2. For Bulls:
Tomo is Friday, time to see if 4940 can hold, we may get a bounce on close > 5014 on 30mins &  close > 5030 EOD

Tgts : 5068 / 5146

cheers

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 10th May'12

CMP: 4975

5DEMA is still wid -ve dy/dx

Since I have booked all shorts, I will either :-

1. Look to Re-enter shorts on Rises (closes towards 5DLEMA / 5DCEMA) ; or
2. Looks for supports @ 4940, & go long if it holds & we close > 4975 (todays close) @ EOD

SMO SAR VERDICT:

SMO SAR EOD = 5061

1. Price closed < 5DLEMA , & 5DEMA is -ve... carry shorts

Support zones : 4940 / 4864

Talk on Longs only once we find a support zone ... & that too, only if we get triggers from
1. Lifo-Fibbo ; or
2. SMO SAR Hr TA Bull x-over

cheers

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 09th May'12

CMP: 5000

A pic is worth a 1000 words. And a simple EMA based system is worth a 1000 smiles !!

So today.. i will leave u wid a simple chart... make ur own meaning of it  & these words

1.  In trends --> EMAs will outperform SMA

2.  EMA is an INFINITE IMPULSE RESPONSE FILTER

3. SMO SAR is based on MULTI-LEVEL Low pass Filtering (removes HiFreQ noise)

The Next level in TA, would be...

1. Use of  FIR filters (SMA, WMA) in correctives ; and

2. Switching over to EMA / other IIR Filter mode in Trends


And I am absolutely chuffed  coz today, was one more occassion to say

TREND IS UR ONLY REAL FRIEND & MATHS NEVER LIES !

cheers

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 08th May'12

CMP: 5114

Possible Reversal developing (Day TA yet to confirm Bullish-ness of Hrly TA, @ EOD)

30mins TA :
Lifo-Fibbo: 2 hlf hr candles close > 34EMA @ 5094.4

Hr TA: 5-10hrEMA has almost Given the BULL X-over

Day TA : 5DEMA will reverse if we close EOD > 5155 (still -ve @ present)

SMO SAR VERDICT:

SMO SAR EOD : 5155

1. Go LONG on Hr close > 5099,
SL 5095 (34EMA, 30mins) , and Morph the Trade to SWING in case we close > 5155 EOD

2. Day close > 5DLEMA (High probability of Reversal in play)

3. Else, go SHORT on close < 5095, SL : 5115 , Tgts : 5000

Supports      :  5088 / 5099

Resistances  : 5146 / 5182 / 5225


cheers

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 07th May'12

CMP : 5087

As a Trend Follower , Nifty currently looks thus :-

On Hr TA      : BEARISH (close < below 5hrLEMA)

On Day TA    : BEARISH (close  < below 5DLEMA @ )

On Wk TA     : BEARISH (close  < below 5WkLEMA @ 5150)

On Mnth TA  : Oscillating bt/w MnHi-LoEMAs ( price > 5Mnth-Lo-EMA = 5025)

For Bulls, In May '12 (Month TA):-
Nifty needs a close > 5025  & then take out 5191

For Bears, In May '12 (Month TA):-
Nifty needs a close < 5025  & then take out 4880

Since CMP is v close to 5025 , currently, I would like to observe how things play out on the Lower Wk & Day TA, for the next few days  before pronouncing a verdict !

Prima Facie , vide the DATA available till date, my view is MORE DOWNSIDE IS POSSIBLE

More as the week goes by ....

cheers

SMO SAR for Nifty ji: for 2nd May'12

CMP: 5248.15

Will be on the road for the next 2 days, so gonna keep this short...

Supports      :  5220 / 5183
Resistances  :  5256 / 5283 / 5310-5334

SMO SAR VERDICT:

SMO SAR EOD  = 5265 (will give 5-10DEMA Bull x-over)

On the other hand, Close below < 5220, will change the sign of dy/dx back to -ve

SMO SAR Hrly = 5236 (will change direction of 5HrEMA to -ve)

1. Price closed > 5DHEMA @ 5243 (v bullish close on Day TA)

2. On Hrly TA, the 5-10HrEMA gave the BULL x-over & generated buy @ 5241 (also was 2 half hr price closes > 34EMA,30mins)

3. Trade has morphed into Swing as on Day TA
(i)  Price close > 5DHEMA
(ii) (dy/dx) of 5DEMA changed signs to +ve

CARRY LONGS created from 5241 for
Tgts 5310-5334 ,
SL : 5220 (34EMA,30mins)

cheers